The GFS just updated here before bedtime. Things are looking better and better for the possibility of an outbreak late nextweek, likely on friday. The ECMWF model is in fairly good agreement with the GFS so this gives me confidence that these models are not full of crap. We are going to be out starting wednesday where there will be a chance for tornadic storms after dark. The cap on wednesday looks crazy now but this could change. Either way, we are in full chase mode starting next week.
(Update)
This spring has been very active for severe weather in all the wrong places. Unfortunately, we have already had many deaths as a result of tornadoes in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Next week is showing some pretty big potential starting Wednesday and possibly lasting through saturday or longer. The GFS forecast model is painting a pretty picture for us stormchasers but lives could also be in danger. I really havent seen a trough like this since Greensburg. The atmosphere is going to be primed for huge supercells with ample moisture and INCREDIBLE forecasted shear and upper energy.
Really nice mid and upper energy progged for central Kansas on Wedensday with 50-70kts at 500mb.
Decent moisture and a dryline with dry air punching in from the southwest. It will be nice to chase in west/central Kansas for once!
This thing BOMBS out at 978mb!!! Surface temps are going to be nearing 100 in sw Kansas. Im pretty worried about the cap on this day (18c at H7) but we will have some pretty strong forcing. We will have to wait and see how it developes.
Upper winds are INSANE on Friday. Almost 100kts at 500mb!!! And 125kts at 250mb!
Friday just looks downright nasty! Although it may be a squall line with linear forcing perpendicular to the dryline.
This of course could all change but the GFS has been fairly consistant in bringing this trough into the plains. Everything looks to be in phase so it will be interesting to see how strong the cap is and how the surface features set up. Jon Merage and I will be out Wedensday through Saturday or longer. We will go wherever the storms are, including Missouri, Iowa, and Arkansas if nececarry. Im ready for some Naders!!!
1 comment:
Hey man thanks for the kind words on that tornado. It was really far away, but it was my dads first solo chase so we will take what we can get lol. Man next week is going to be CRAZY. Can't wait...good luck and hope to see you guys under the meso.
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