Monday, April 16, 2007

Post #19 Probable weekend chase!!!

This weekend's potetential severe weather event has me pretty stoked. Oviously the weekend timing is convenient considering my work and school schedule.
A 35-40 Kt LLJ gets cranking with backing winds near the dryline. Hopefully the surface winds will back more than what is depicted here. The 700mb temps show the cap eroding nicely.

The GFS shows a decent toungue of surface based CAPE. I would like to see this increased but 2000 sb CAPE would be good enough to feed some solid updrafts.

A reasonably sharp dryline is depicted here with solid mid 50's dewpoints to the east.

I suppose this is a good sign when the GFS breaks out precip along the dryline 132 hours out.

Obviously things could change quite a bit so im not going gung ho as of yet. At this point, I would target anywhere between Hays and Dodge City Kansas. Hopefully, things will back up to the west just a bit. I would love to think that this event will unfold like the tornado outbreak on 3/28 but with more tornadoes up north before dark. On a more current note, storms are possible along the I-25 corridor tonight. I will be heading out after dark in search of hopefully some decent lightning. I am also picking up a sigma telephoto lens tonight to hold me over untill I can afford that Canon IS. Its only 70$ used so I dont see how I could go wrong.

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