Wednesday, February 4, 2009


Well, Ive been watching this for a while now, and now that the GFS has been consistant for the past few runs, ill bite tentatively. Im eyeing a potential Cold Core Tornadic setup in western KS on Sunday. West/Central TX could also see some action with the stronger jet core in that area, as well as more availible moisture. Due to work constraints, I have to sit out the TX setup either way, so Ill focus on the CC setup.

Winds back nicely around the surface low sitting in Eastern CO, creating some mean looking shear profiles with the H5 winds shooting out of the SW at 50kts.

H5 winds could be closer to 55-60kts somewhere during the 18-0Z timeframe.

Nice little CAPE bubble shows up just to the east of the vigorous surface low.

H5 temps barely meet the criteria for a CC setup, but ill take anything I can get.

Im hoping the surface features will work out with an unimpeded warm sector, nice dry air intrusion, and slightly higher dewpoints than forecast.
If this run verifies, I think we could see some tornadoes around I-70 north to the tri-state intersection. Ill have a close eye on this one to say the least.


Dann Cianca said...

I think we're being teased ... I'm already going crazy inside.

Sean Mullins said...

So be it! This is my BS post for the year lol! Everytime I ignore setups like this, I get hosed. Surface low needs some love!!!

Dann Cianca said...

You planning on heading out?

Sean Mullins said...

Yeah, within reason. Jon is in Houston right now so I dont have any mobile data, so it could be a blind chase lol.

Dann Cianca said...

Looks like Tony, Michael and I are heading down to Amarillo tomorrow. Let us know if you're go'n'a be out!